A recent survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that most Americans believe the new tax and spending law signed on 4 July 2025 will benefit wealthy individuals more than others. The legislation, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, extends 2017 tax cuts and reduces several social programs.
AP-NORC Poll Shows Public Believes New Tax Law Favors the Wealthy Over Middle and Low-Income Groups
Discussion of Results
The poll, conducted from July 10 to 14, surveyed 1437 U.S. adults using the AmeriSpeak Panel, which is nationally representative. Two-thirds of respondents reported having heard about the new law. Most aware respondents expressed concern that the benefits would flow disproportionately to higher-income groups rather than middle or lower-income Americans.
Approximately 66 percent of participants believe the law will benefit wealthy individuals the most, while 60 percent think it will harm low-income people, and about 50 percent expect it to negatively affect the middle class. Many also believe the law will do more harm than good for people like themselves. This reflects broad skepticism across different income groups.
Partisan differences are significant. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to view the law as favoring the wealthy and harming low-income groups. Republicans, while more divided, remain somewhat optimistic about its impact on the middle class. Those who are more informed about the One Big Beautiful Act tend to perceive its benefits as skewed toward the wealthy.
The law includes extensions of previous tax cuts, temporary new deductions for tips and overtime, and higher child tax credits. It also cuts funding for Medicaid and food assistance programs while boosting defense and border enforcement budgets. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it will increase the federal deficit by about USD 3.3 trillion over 10 years.
Personal accounts noted perceived hardships. Single parents and caregivers worry about reduced support for childcare and food programs. Even some Republican respondents voiced concern that elderly and disabled Americans would receive little help. These testimonies underscore the perceived imbalance between tax relief and reductions in social safety net funding.
Survey results also reveal widespread concern about government spending. 60 percent believe federal spending levels are too high. Support for how Trump handles spending decreased to 38 percent. This is a sharp drop from earlier this year. Opposition to eliminating the federal debt ceiling is consistent across party lines, with nearly half rejecting the idea.
The methodology strengthens the reliability of its findings. It used a probability-based sample from the AmeriSpeak Panel and mixed data collection methods through online and telephone interviews. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for the entire sample, and 6.6 points for younger respondents who were intentionally oversampled.
Analysts note that this tax and spending package represents one of the largest shifts in fiscal priorities in recent decades. Cuts to social programs raise equity and deficit concerns despite targeted tax relief. Public opinion indicates that many Americans are skeptical about whether this law will deliver promised benefits beyond the wealthiest households.
Summary of Findings
• Majority See Benefits for Wealthy: Two-thirds of Americans believe the law primarily benefits wealthy individuals rather than middle- or low-income groups.
• Perceived Harm to Lower and Middle Class: About 60 percent say it harms low-income people. Roughly half believe it negatively affects the middle class.
• Strong Partisan Divide: Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to view the law as favoring the wealthy. Many Republicans remain divided in their opinions.
• Awareness Increases Skepticism: People familiar with the One Big Beautiful Act and its provisions are more likely to think it benefits the rich and harms others.
• Decline in Approval of Spending Management: Approval of the handling of government spending under Trump dropped from 46% in March to 38% in July 2025.
• Debt Ceiling Opposition is Bipartisan: Nearly half of respondents in both parties oppose eliminating the debt ceiling. This shows shared concern about borrowing limits.
• Personal Hardships Highlighted: Caregivers and single parents, even among Republican respondents, express fear over reduced childcare and food support.
FURTHER READINGS AND REFERENCES
- AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. July 2025. “Public Expects the New Tax and Spending Law Will Do More to Benefit the Wealthy, While Harming Middle and Lower-Income People.” AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Available online
- Yeung, N. A. 2025. “Individual and Family Tax Cuts Under the One Big Beautiful Act.” Profolus. Available online